A wet weekend in Wigan

Rarely can an unassuming working class suburb in the North West of England have witnessed such a media frenzy.

Now that its sitting MP, Josh Simons, has applied to join the Chiltern Hundreds (a Westminster legal fiction meaning, in everyday parlance, he's tendered his resignation from the House of Commons), the former pit village of Makerfield near Wigan in Greater Manchester has become the epicentre of the British political universe. Having only just returned a full complement of Reform councillors in the recent local elections, the departure of its Labour MP will throw all the pieces of the political jigsaw up in the air once more. But not only at the local level; the fact that the seat is due to be contested by none other than Andy Burnham, a local lad and popular incumbent Mayor of Manchester, has lent the by-election national significance. As a consequence, the media has piled into town and will be pestering folk for soundbites for weeks to come as they attempt to dodge the traffic cones currently littering the high street.

The so-called 'King of the North' has aspirations to oust the incumbent Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer, but the only way he can do so is by first becoming a Labour MP. Step forward Josh Simons, elected to the Makerfield seat at the General Election only in 2024, who has kindly obliged him by falling on his sword to clear the path for the man he clearly hopes can rescue the Labour Party from electoral oblivion under Starmer's lacklustre leadership. Lucy Powell, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, has announced that the National Executive Committee (NEC) will categorically not block his attempt to stand this time as it did (calamitously) on the previous occasion he tried.

But there's potential jeopardy here for all concerned, and not just within the Labour Party. Reform's leader, Nigel Farage, has said he will "throw everything" at the contest, obviously buoyed by the calculation that his party's recent success in the local elections gives Reform a strong chance of securing the seat. If he's right, it would be a serious blow not only to Burnham's credibility but to Labour morale, already at a low ebb. Starmer might initially breathe a sigh of relief at Burnham's defeat but it could prove a Pyrrhic victory, both for his premiership and the future of his party nationally. He could find himself challenged by Wes Streeting whilst facing the prospect of a Reform government at the next General Election in three years' time - a double-whammy and a case of 'out of the frying pan into the fire'.

For Burnham, a defeat, while undoubtedly a huge blow to his personal prestige, would still leave him with the Manchester mayoralty, from which he has not had to resign in order to stand in Makerfield. He is thus hedging his bets, with his current Northern power-base remaining to him should he fail in his bid to return to Westminster. Farage, meanwhile, might be deluding himself that Reform's success in the locals will necessarily translate to victory in this Parliamentary by-election. Local elections are often a protest vote against the incumbent government, not automatically determining national voting intentions. The Green Party's recent surprise Parliamentary by-election victory in nearby Gorton and Denton should serve as a warning against hubris. 

Of course, the Greens may yet decide not to contest the Makerfield by-election in order to enable a strong progressive challenger to Starmer in Parliament. For their part, the Lib Dems might be less open to stepping aside for Burnham now he appears to be softening his stance on rejoining the EU, saying: "I'm not advocating that in this by-election." How much this is in reaction to Wes Streeting's sudden enthusiasm for rejoining the EU or a reflection of the realpolitik of the strong Reform presence in the constituency is unclear but, given their recent local election success, it is perhaps unsurprising.

For now, whether 'Manchesterism' can see off 'Starmerism' remains very much an open question. 

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