Politically illiterate

This view of an unnamed Labour MP quoted in The Guardian is one way of looking at the government's unfathomable decision to press ahead with scrapping pensioners' winter fuel allowance.

Another described it as "a shitshow", which arguably comes closer to the truth of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' shock announcement of the policy, which was not in Labour's election manifesto. This had the immediate effect of putting a damper on victory celebrations (already muted) and led to newly-elected MPs being inundated with angry and concerned constituents' reactions. I'm sure they could well have done without this controversy before even having had time to sort out their constituency and parliamentary offices. 

Shortly after Reeves' bombshell parliament rose for its long summer recess, during which time the policy might have been tweaked or even quietly dropped. But no, seemingly determined to lose friends and alienate people, Labour pressed ahead with its misbegotten policy. While there has been some talk of the ameliorating effect of the triple lock on pensioners' incomes,  with ministers urging takeup of Pensioner Credit in order to qualify for a continuing payment, it may be too little too late. 

The issue comes before the House of Commons for debate and vote on Tuesday, where the fallout could be bloody. It will assuredly give aid and succour to the bruised and battered Tory opposition, though with its unassailable majority there's no way the government will lose the vote. Nevertheless, it could prove to be a Pyrrhic victory. The policy is set to save around £1.4bn this year, but at what cost to the unity and morale of the Labour party and its popularity in the country, already only lukewarm at best? 

It could also cast a serious pall over Labour's party conference, to be held in Liverpool from 22nd to 25th September. What should have been an occasion for joyous celebration could instead be one of rancour and division. This is par for the course for Labour but is surely not the start Sir Keir Starmer and his cabinet team were envisaging. After fourteen gruelling years on the opposition benches this would have been a moment to relish. Now it will be one to dread.

Keir Starmer gave no sign of that, though, in an interview with Laura Kuenssberg, recorded by the BBC in the Cabinet Room of 10 Downing Street and broadcast this morning. He was bullish, unapologetic and upbeat, claiming he was prepared to be unpopular. He looks certain to be put to the test on that one at least. 

His personal popularity ratings, never particularly high, have declined since the announcement but he is probably calculating that getting the pain out of the way early in his tenure will mean it will be forgiven and, better still, forgotten by the next election in five years' time. If so, it's a high-risk strategy.

For a start, much hinges on the economy picking up in the interim and that is by no means a given. If no tangible feel-good factor has emerged in the country by that time, and if the Tories get their act together (a big 'if' admittedly but possible under a new leader) then history shows Labour cannot rely on another decisive victory, or even on gaining a working majority, in 2029.

Labour whips will have their work cut out instilling discipline in their swollen ranks ahead of Tuesday's vote and we may be sure they will be putting some stick about in the corridors and tearooms. Potential rebels' minds will undoubtedly already have been much-concentrated by Starmer's uncompromising suspension of the seven Labour MPs who previously voted for the SNP's amendment calling for the removal of the two-child benefit cap. 

However, some may choose to abstain or absent themselves, while others may be brave enough to risk the consequences of going through the 'no' lobby. Yet others, who stood merely to make up the numbers in constituencies they weren't expected to win, may not be that committed to remaining Labour MPs, especially after this fiasco. They may not much care if the party whip is withdrawn from them. 

As Independents they could continue to sit as MPs until the next election and there is now a Corbynite grouping they could join if they wished. They need not necessarily find themselves in the political wilderness as a result of suspension, and they will at least be able to claim the moral highground. 

In the worst case scenario for Labour they might join another party or even resign their seats altogether, triggering by-elections. This early in a new government that would be very damaging, particularly if Labour were to lose seats as a result, as seems almost certain.

All this, and more I'm sure, will be focusing the minds of Starmer and his No 10 team as they seek ways to minimise potential embarrassment on Tuesday. They will use all the tools at their disposal, including threats and blandishments, to stave off disaster. Whether lessons will be learned from this self-inflicted debacle remains in doubt, however.

Hopefully it will by now have become blindingly obvious to them that their huge majority in the Commons cannot be taken as read, even this early in the parliament. For their part, newbie MPs should seize the opportunity to assert themselves and show that their support cannot be taken for granted, nor will they be bullied or coerced, over a crisis entirely of the government's own making.

One thing must be blindingly obvious by now, though; if it all goes tits-up on Tuesday things could get very messy indeed for the government from here on in, huge majority or no. They have got off to a really bad start and this could be a slippery slope. Things might not get better after this shambles.

Tragically, it was as unnecessary as it was avoidable.

Update 09/09/24: Oh joy! And now the weather conspires against them. The Met Office is forecasting Arctic blasts from mid-week. An ill wind indeed for Starmer and Reeves.

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