Hit and myth

In an essay for the openDemocracy newsletter on the future of Ukraine, Aman Sethi discusses national.myths.

As he puts it, "we are all shaped by our myths, but we needn’t be bound to them. We are all born into our respective national identities, but we can each choose to reinterpret what they mean to us". While the United Kingdom is clearly not facing the existential crisis currently being experienced by Ukraine as a result of Russian aggression, it is nevertheless in the throes of a crisis of identity. It could be argued that this is merely the latest iteration of a struggle that has existed at least since the Acts of Union of 1603 and 1707 between England and Scotland - the first personal, when King James VI of Scotland became James I of England on the death of the childless Elizabeth I, the second political, in the reign of Queen Anne - but with roots stretching back centuries before that, including the Union of England and Wales in 1536 under Henry VIII.

It could also be argued that the Internal struggles for identity and independence within Britain and Ireland since these unifications, for example the English Civil Wars of the 17th century (including the subjugation of Ireland, and the Scottish Jacobite Rebellions of the 18th century), were gradually redirected (though never entirely subsumed) into a collective 'British' imperialist endeavour which included Scots, Irish and Welsh as much as, if not more than, the English. In other words, internal struggles were put on hold as energies were externalised into establishing global trade and colonies.

But they never went away and, as British imperial power began to wane after World War I, resentment in Ireland burst into full-blown rebellion against British rule in 1919. The Act of Union of 1801, which had created the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, unravelled, leading to the foundation of the Irish Free State in 1922. However, six northern Irish counties chose to remain as a province of the Union loyal to the British Crown. The province's Protestant loyalist hegemony led to simmering tensions with its oppressed Catholic community, which exploded into sectarian violence known as 'The Troubles' and spanned thirty years from the 1960s to the signing of the Belfast or 'Good Friday' Agreement in 1998.

There followed a period of relative calm, boosted by the Labour government's devolution policies for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (though interestingly, and possibly tellingly, not England) from 1997. But the shifting tectonic plates of national identity continued to grind, contorting the political landscape. The granting by the Conservative-led coalition government of a referendum on Scottish independence, held in 2014, led to a decision to remain in the United Kingdom by a margin of 55% to 45%. This was considered a definitive outcome for a generation but it was swayed by the fear of an independent Scotland having to reapply for membership of the European Union (EU). 

Understandably, there was huge resentment in Scotland when, in 2016, a referendum on EU membership, granted by the by-now majority Conservative government, led to a narrow victory for the 'Leave' campaign of 52% to 48%. The Scottish result was 62% to 38% in favour of remaining in membership so not only had Scots sacrificed their independence but, in so doing, they had lost their treasured membership of the EU. While in Northern Ireland the vote to remain was 56% to 44%, by contrast in England and Wales overall the majority for leaving was decisive.  After forty-three years in the EU, Britain Brexited. Unfortunately, though the British people had spoken, it had not been with one voice.

Unsurprisingly, calls for self-determination, never silenced, were amplified. Now that Brexit has been shown to have been an economic disaster demands are once again being raised for a second independence referendum in Scotland. There are growing expectations that the island of Ireland may reunify within the decade. In Wales, the nationalist Plaid Cymru party is being tipped for government in the Senedd elections next year, defeating an increasingly unpopular Welsh Labour party. In England, meanwhile, the agenda is dominated by migration, particularly of the irregular variety, despite its only comprising 5% of the annual total. Nigel Farage has never let facts stand in the way of propaganda, as Brexit proved.

It seems the centrist parties in England are being squeezed by parties of the left and right; namely the Green Party under its new leftwing leadership of Zack Polanski, and Reform UK under Brexit campaigner, Farage. (The newly-formed leftwing Your Party, under Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana's joint leadership, shows every sign of imploding before it is even fully launched as a result of internicine squabbling.)

So where does this leave the UK's cherished foundational myth of unity? The British are demonstrably not one people, the histories and cultures - even the languages and dialects - of Britain's component nations are distinct and different and the glue that was supposed to hold this fragile construct together, ie the monarchy and parliamentary democracy (the so-called Crown in Parliament principle), is coming seriously unstuck. 

As things stand at present there is a serious possibility, even a likelihood, of Reform UK winning the general election in 2029 and Nigel Farage becoming the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. While this may satisfy many voters in England and Wales it will not go down so well with the Scottish electorate, which will only lead to more calls for independence from that quarter. But things are highly unlikely to stay as they are at present. For starters the situation in Ukraine shows every sign of deteriorating into a full-scale European conflict. It Donald Trump continues to insist on the implementation of his 28-point peace plan (effectively meaning Ukrainian capitulation to Vladimir Putin) and Europe belatedly decides to support Ukraine unconditionally in continuing the fight, then all bets are off.

Then again, Trump's days in the US Presidency may be numbered if the continuing Epstein scandal seriously annoys his MAGA base and opposition within both the Republican and Democrat parties grows and coalesces into a coordinated pushback against him. The mid-term elections next year will be key but we have already seen significant electoral victories by leftwing candidates in key local elections and, regardless of whether the Democrats finally get their act together after their crushing defeat by Trump, senior Republican politicians will be plotting their own presidential futures. There is also a distinct possibility of serious rioting or even civil war if Trump persists with his current Draconian anti-immigrant policies and his Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in major US cities.

Post-Brexit, the UK finds itself in a delicate, potentially perilous, position internationaly. As a 'Third Country' outside the EU and unhealthily reliant on a fickle and unpredictable US president, whose own position may become untenable and who is anyway due to quit office in 2028, its future is more insecure than at any time since 1940. At the same time, divisive politics at home could further destabilise it. If Farage were to become PM he has shown himself to be a strong supporter of Trump and Putin. In this scenario the UK would find itself at odds with the EU, Farage's long-time bête noire, and the EU would find itself caught between an expansionist Russia and a hostile UK - in other words between a classic rock and a hard place.

But would there even be a cohesive UK by that point? It is barely that now and it wouldn't take much to further weaken its fissiparous union. Given the number of imponderables at play it is impossible to predict the outcome but, for the sake of argument, let's assume an uneasy international status quo provides us with just enough time to put our own house in order, what should we do? From my perspective a strong socialist government is key to, in fact a sine qua non for, sorting out a plethora of longstanding domestic issues.

First and foremost should come the dismantling of the kingdom itself, with the abolition of the monarchy leading to the declaration of democratic republics. Simultaneously, there should be a decision on the nature of the relationship between the separate nations of the former kingdom: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. As far as the latter is concerned, I envisage a reunited Ireland, leaving the three nations of the island of Great Britain to decide how to relate to each other and, jointly or severally, to Ireland. This could take the form of a federation, confederation or union, or remaining entirely as independent states.  I wouldn't wish to pre-judge but I imagine an independent Ireland and a partnership of some kind involving the three nations occupying the one island of Great Britain.

Throughout history emerging states have felt the need for foundational myths. Rome had Romulus and Remus and in modern times the United States in its national anthem mythologised the Star-Spangled Banner flying defiantly above Fort McHenry after it was bombarded by the British. Consider the pivotal role of the storming of the Bastille prison in sparking the French Revolution or the Risorgimento in the unification of Italy. Indeed, in view of the ongoing Gaza conflict, consider the role of the Holocaust in the foundation of the modern Jewish state of Israel in 1948. Once the United Kingdom has thrown off its monarchical chains the myths its nations seize upon will become an intrinsic part of their futures.

I hope to live long enough to find out what these might be.