The brave music of a distant drum

Work has begun on updating the UK government's so-called 'War Book', which hasn't been looked at in decades.

According to the House of Commons Library, this exercise is not about military preparedness for imminent conflict "but reflect[s] the government’s ‘whole-of-society’ approach to defence and national security."  Hence, presumably, recent advice that has seeped into the public domain about stocking up on tinned food, bottled water, torches, a battery radio and candles. Well, we live in an increasingly uncertain world and you never know.

But, while the dust is blown off the Cold War advice and precise details of the new version remain unclear so far, I think it's becoming glaringly obvious that the climate crisis and growing international bellicosity (which feed off each other - as it were) will be felt at home in food shortages, power blackouts and rampant inflation, maybe as soon as this winter. How much we can realistically hedge against this as private citizens and how much government support we might expect in order to do so is, for now, an open question. However, we may need answers sooner rather than later having suffered an unprecedented heatwave and prolonged drought this summer, all of which has raised the uncomfortable issue of food security.  The increasing likelihood of an escalation of Trump's war against Iran and Putin's against Ukraine can only make matters worse.

Russians of call-up age are apparently leaving the country in droves fearing conscription after the current Duma elections, the first since Russia's invasion in 2022. Putin is amost certainly planning an all-out push to win the war this winter, which will mean a ferocious campaign involving full mobilisation. The formerly protected Moscow elite, who have thus far escaped the horrors of the frontline, must fear their luck running out, and with good reason. Frankly, the prospect of so many pampered Muskovites, who have until now been quite relaxed about hundreds of thousands of their less-privileged compatriots dying in the Donbas, is rather grotesque. One can perfectly well understand their not wanting to die in Putin's pointless war but shame on them for not protesting against it sooner. They may now be voting with their feet but it looks very much like doing the chicken run.

What are the chances they will redeem themselves by joining a 'foreign legion' fighting for Ukraine?

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