Jam tomorrow - conference sketch

In a powerful and emotionally charged speech to the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool today Andy Burnham set the tone for his premiership up to the next general election and beyond.

The question now must be, though, with so many of his aspirations requiring the endorsement of the electorate at that election, what's he going to do for the next three years? His direction of travel may be much clearer but the can was largely kicked down the road, with so many 'big ticket' items on hold until spring 2029 in the hope of winning a full Parliamentary term in which to implement them. To be fair, there is quite a lot to be getting on with in the meantime but it's highly unlikely he will gain a majority of the historic size of the one bequeathed him by his predecessor, and sticking to Starmer's manifesto pledges could mean losing momentum and finding himself - always supposing he wins - struggling to deliver what he promised today. If a week is a long time in politics three years is an eternity.

When Parliament finally returns to business on 12th October after the Conference recess his government will need to consider several landmark reports, for example Baroness Louise Casey's on social care, Alan Milburn's on youth unemployment (NEET) and Stephen Timms' on Personal Independence Payments (PIP). The findings of these will inform the debates to agree legislation which will define those next three years. But, before that, there will be another major electoral hurdle to jump, that of the Holborn & St Pancras by-election on the 8th. This is a much less welcome legacy of Starmer's two-year tenure and if Labour fails to hold the seat Starmer vacated on leaving Downing Street it will be a major reputational setback for Burnham - not that that was the intention, of course (ahem). Coming so soon after his Conference triumph a defeat for Labour in a key London seat held by them since 1983 would unquestionably squash the 'Burnham bounce' and seriously deflate party morale.

There's no doubt that sticking to Starmer's manifesto pledges in the hope of gaining a ringing electoral endorsement of his own policy offering in 2029 is a risky strategy for Burnham. Another of the many items deferred until after the general election is electoral reform so he will need to be sure of winning a convincing majority via the existing first-past-the-post system if he hopes to introduce a form of proportional representation (PR) into Westminster polls. Similarly, if he decides to include closer ties with the EU, or even rejoining is, he will have to lay the groundwork scrupulously over the next three years and make the case compellingly at the ballot box. If he decides to go for it, he will also have to decide whether another referendum will be required to seal the deal. His promised UK-EU 'reset summit' later this year will certainly have some heavy lifting to do.

He spoke passionately today about his love of the Union of the United Kingdom but also supports greater devolution, which is paradoxical. He has given nationalists encouragement, particularly the Scots, and can hardly argue that the 2014 referendum on Scottish Independence was a 'once in a generation' event if he seeks to overturn the result of the Brexit referendum of 2016. This will be a difficult circle for him to square, as will any decision to give the go-ahead to exploitation of the Rosebank and Jackdaw gas and oil fields in the North Sea - which he alluded to in passing without naming them - especially with Zack Polanski standing for the Greens in Holborn & St Pancras. 

He seems to have got away lightly (for now at least) with his proposed reform to the pension triple lock, holding out the quid pro quo of a new social care system funded in part by any savings. However, Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite the Union, condemned these proposals as "morally wrong" and that's got to hurt. Burnham must be mindful of the winter fuel payment fiasco which, in retrospect, spelled the beginning of the end for Keir Starmer and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, both of whom he was at pains to praise today. At least he seems to have learnt from their fatal mistake the importance of rolling the pitch when it comes to announcements of this magnitude and, again, implementation will not come until after the general election so there's plenty of time to debate the issue. In fact, Burnham may find, with so much policy put on hold, that the next three years drags and energy dissipates.

What's the betting on an early general election?







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