Life on Burnham Street
Andy Burnham has spent the summer making a string of policy announcements - this week he will find out how it's gone down.
With the summer recess and August Bank Holiday out of the way, schools and Parliament return for the autumn today and, rather like teachers having an inset day, so MPs will take the day to settle in before the first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) kicks business off in earnest tomorrow. Burnham may choose to make a statement to the House today but the PMQs set-piece at the despatch box tomorrow will be his first major performance in the Chamber of the House of Commons since becoming Prime Minister on 20th July. To describe it as eagerly-awaited would be an understatement and it will be closely scrutinised and analysed. Therefore, it is essential that Burnham gets the tone right since it will define the rest of his premiership. No pressure there, then.
His many pledges over the summer, variously described as a flurry, slew or spate, will certainly provide the Leader of the Opposition, Kemi Badenoch, with plenty of rhetorical ammunition to fire at him in their first exchange over the despatch boxes. He has already had to row back on some of them, for example 100% of new house building being council housing (now reduced to 60%) although, to be fair, that was Burnham's hope and never a firm promise. Nevertheless, it demonstrates how quickly well-meant policy aspirations can collide with the harsh reality of practical delivery in the face of rapidly changing geopolitical events whose impact is felt on a vulnerable and volatile British economy. When his every well-meaning off-the-cuff remark becomes a potential hostage to fortune, the reality of his new position will soon bear down on our Andy, if it hasn't already.
He made a bold start by scrapping Keir Starmer's digital ID scheme to save £1.8 billion over three years, then removing the 5% VAT rate on domestic electricity bills in Great Britain for six months starting in October. Single bus fares were capped at £2 in England for all of 2027 and a 20% reduction in business rates for pubs, clubs, and music venues was a sop to this severely squeezed sector. His pledge to preserve domestic manufacturing capabilities in vital sectors like steel, defence, energy, and agriculture is struggling in the face of unfolding world events, with China keen to offload its steel cheaply and the Iran war impacting fossil fuel prices.
His plans for further devolution and constitutional reform will doubtless give Badenoch much to get exercised about but he may have more to fear from his own backbenchers. As a 'usurper' he will be conscious of the danger that lurks behind his back and, while facing Badenoch, he won't be able to scrutinise the reaction in the serried ranks of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP), not all of whom supported his ousting of his predecessor. With proposals for proportional representation (PR) to replace first-past-the-post in Westminster elections, and voting from age 16, due to be debated, he will need to keep a tight grip on his own MPs. He has already stated that he will abstain from voting on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill when it returns to the Commons, which may end up pleasing no-one. Allied to this, his description of the current party whipping system as "a straitjacket" may now impose its own restrictions on his freedom to assert control when the going gets tough.
Meanwhile, his plans to allow English regional mayors more powers to retain a greater share of locally generated business rates and income tax starting in spring 2027 are controversial and his reinstatement of the National Economic Council (NEC), whose first meeting he chaired from "No 10 North" in Manchester on 24th July, is seen by some critics as favouring regional mayors over economists when it come to making decisions about the economy. His national youth employment drive to offer 10,000 work experience and apprenticeship placements is heavily dependent on business buy-in and his appointment of the first dedicated Minister to a new AI Taskforce integrating tech into public services is as yet untested. His changes to accelerate housing developments and infrastructure projects, and a commitment to the largest council house building framework since World War II, are already coming under pressure. He is facing a growing public backlash in response to the redesignation of some Green Belt land as "Grey Belt", opening up the way for building in much-cherished countryside.
Burnham has undoubtedly had a busy summer, but this autumn's Parliamentary sitting will really stress-test his ability to deliver as PM; added to which, a mere fortnight after returning to Westminster, Parliament rises again for the Party Conference season. He will face his own party members on 29th September when he gives his Leader's keynote speech to the Labour Party Conference. This will be critical in establishing his credentials (and credibility) as Labour's new Leader and Prime Minister. As it will be held in Liverpool, Burnham's home patch having been born in Aintree, he should enjoy a very warm reception but will have to work hard to maintain the momentum thereafter, with Parliament resuming on 12th October. And then comes the test of his first Budget on 28th October...
The road ahead is clearly beset by many potential pitfalls for our latest Prime Minister.