The man with the plan

As Andy Burnham addressed the Labour Party faithful today it was hard not to be swept up in the enthusiasm.

Burnham's leadership acceptance speech at Congress House was, as expected, extremely upbeat and positive. It was impossible not to compare it with Keir Starmer's lacklustre efforts, which serially failed to motivate his party,  boost its flagging morale or secure his position. On the contrary, the more the membership heard from him, the more deflated their mood became and the less they trusted his leadership. No-one could begrudge Burnham his moment of elation today - although he deftly avoided triumphalism - but he would do well to bear in mind the old adage, fine words butter no parsnips. Talk is cheap but the difficult bit will be delivery - and time is not on his side. 

In thirty months or so preparations should be getting underway for the next General Election - unless, that is, Burnham decides to go to the country early in the hope of being returned for another five years on his own mandate. But that's a strategy fraught with risk; he might lose or (almost worse) win narrowly without securing a working majority. As Theresa May discovered to her chagrin in 2017, even when won, snap elections don't necessarily bolster one's position. Burnham may prefer to rely instead on the huge Parliamentary majority Starmer has bequeathed him - perhaps his most benign bequest. It's hard to imagine he could better it, however sincere and well-meaning his intentions, so he may as well work with what he's got and put his limited time to better use attempting to turn the country round.

The next milestone for Burnham, after a weekend taking stock of his Cabinet options, will be his official arrival in Downing Street on Monday after seeing the King. If today was his own coronation, that will be his annointing, for good or ill. Unlike his predecessor, Burnham is a seasoned politician at both national and local level and is unlikely to be fazed by the clamour over his arrival at Number 10. Starmer always had the look of a rabbit caught in headlights on such occasions behind the lecturn whereas Burnham genuinely seems to relish them. In that respect, his authenticity is infectious.

One thing was apparent at today's event: the general, and apparently sincere, recognition that Starmer had engineered Labour's post-Corbyn electoral resurgence and secured its landslide majority two years ago. At the same time, there was a palpable sense of relief that Starmer himself was gone, that the transition had been bloodless and that there was still time to secure Labour's future in government. I suppose it's easy to be magnanimous about one's predecessor when one has just obtained the overwhelming backing of one's Parliamentary colleagues, but Burnham carried it off with good grace nonetheless. Being personable and relatable will certainly help carry him through the next three years in office but whether it will be enough to get him over the line at the next General Election, whenever it comes, only time will tell.

One thing is certain, though: he won't be given an easy ride.

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