Drill, maybe, drill

It looks like one of the first decisions Andy Burnham will be making on Monday will involve energy supply.

On arriving in Downing Street having 'kissed hands' with the King he will face the serried ranks of press and media assembled on a specially constructed grandstand to cover his totemic moment behind the lectern. It's not clear if he will be taking questions but, depending on how his speech is received, it could easily be downhill all the way after that. I wish him well because this performance could make or break his premiership.

Presumably by Monday morning he will have finalised his Cabinet choices, the two major ones at this particular juncture being Chancellor and Energy Secretary, with the most hotly-tipped candidates being Ed Milliband and Shabana Mahmood, interchangeably. In Sir Keir Starmer's Cabinet, Ed Milliband was Energy and Net Zero Secretary and Mahmood Home Secretary. With Milliband being the champion of renewable energy and net zero policies, this is where the going gets tricky for Burnham. A decision has to be made soon about whether to allow drilling in the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea, for which licences had already been granted but which fell foul of a Court of Sessions ruling in Edinburgh in 2025.

Starmer's winning election manifesto promised no new licences would be granted but these two fields, having previously been granted licences, would technically meet the letter, if not the spirit, of the manifesto Burnham claims to be working to. All a bit Jesuitical, admittedly, but Burnham is rumoured to be weighing the granting of fresh permission following consultations on updated Environmental Impact Assessments. I suspect Burnham, a pragmatist, might be minded to allow work to continue, especially in light of the Tories' historic by-election win in Aberdeen South, secured on a backlash against job losses in the fossil fuel industry there. This could decide his choice of Energy Secretary, Milliband having nailed his colour firmly to the net zero mast by describing drilling the two fields as "climate vandalism". Mahmood, on the other hand, might prove more amenable to compromise.

But here's the problem, business appears to favour Mahmood as Chancellor because it judges her more likely to adopt an orthodox approach to the economy and fiscal policy whereas Milliband, despite his previous Treasury experience, is seen as more left-wing and has spoken of extending the bonus tax on banks, which might spook the markets. Of course, Burnham might decide to spurn both as candidates for these roles but the danger inherent in that is ending up with two angry 'big beasts' crashing around in the undergrowth from the outset. On the other hand, leaving them both in their current posts might smack of 'continuity' government, which risks setting the wrong tone after the ousting of Starmer. This presents Burnham with an unenviable, and possibly unreconcilable, dilemma.

There may, however, be a trade-off in banning outright the existing 79 fracking sites still operating under the radar in England despite a 2019 moritorium. Their existence has been highlighted by Channel 4 News recently and the issue has sparked large and angry protests. Closing this legal loophole might just give Burnham enough wriggle room should he decide to press ahead with Rosebank and Jackdaw. It may not offer equivalence as a quid pro quo but it would mean he could argue he has found a trade-off.

Politics, after all, is a transactional game.