Let slip the dogs of war

In my piece yesterday I wrote about putting the UK on a war footing, only to awake this morning to news that the opening salvo may just have been fired.

I refer to the overnight boarding by Royal Marine Commandos of the Russian shadow fleet oil tanker, Smyrtos, in the English Channel, to my mind not before time. Such vessels (estimated to be 700 worldwide) are responsible for carrying 75% of Russia's sanctioned oil, providing a critical lifeline for the Kremlin according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD). This operation is enabled by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and, besides, it's worth bearing in mind that there are no international waters in the Strait of Dover, where the Channel is so narrow that it is shared equally between the UK and France, with no international waters in between. Not that there is any legal impediment to such an operation in international waters, simply that the nature of the Channel makes it easier - and far more high-profile - to act decisively. In other words, it has immense propaganda value, both for Downing Street and the Kremlin.

Unsurprisingly, Laura Kuenssberg led on it in her Sunday morning show on BBC1 and was able to screen freshly-released film footage of the boarding operation. Whether it comes too late to rescue the beleaguered premiership of Sir Keir Starmer is open to question - it's probably far too late for that now - but at least it shows dynamic action for a change. A lot depends on the result of the Makerfield by-election on Thursday but even should Andy Burnham lose, Starmer is by no means home and dry. On Kuenssberg's panel of commentators this morning was Al Carns, the Armed Forces Minister who quit following the resignation of his boss, Defence Secretary, John Healey. He announced that, irrespective of the outcome in Makerfield, he would be throwing his hat in the ring of any subsequent leadership contest. A declaration of war of another sort one might say.

Kuenssberg's first guest was Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, who was closely-questioned on how significant departmental savings could be found across Whitehall to fund a meaningful increase in defence spending. Part of Nandy's remit covers funding of the BBC but her portfolio also includes many other 'soft' targets for potential cuts, such as publicly-funded arts and cultural organisations like museums, galleries, theatres, orchestras etc which could all face a significant squeeze. Other guests in the show were Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Lib Dems in parliament, who suggested issuing war bonds as a way of raising the necessary investment. James Cartlidge, Shadow Defence Secretary for the Conservatives, spoke about working with the government to find solutions to the problem of defence spending. I couldn't help wondering if all this cross-party consensus might be presaging a government of national unity such as the UK had throughout World War II.

As was to be expected, the issue of welfare cuts featured largely in the show and it now seems increasingly likely that out-of-work and disability benefits, the axing of the two-child benefit limit and the pension triple-lock will all be looked at once again. And with over a million 16-24 year-olds classed as NEET (not in employment, education or training) it seems inevitable that some form of conscription into a national youth scheme might soon follow. All this is the inescapable logic of needing to increase the share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) allocated to UK defence spending, currently standing at around 2.5% but set to rise to 3.5% and even possibly 5%. All of these actions would be made easier for the government if implemented in preparation for war. 

Against this backdop it's worth remembering that the UK's spending during World War II peaked at over 50-55% of GDP, resulting in an eye-watering post-war debt-to-GDP ratio of roughly 250% by 1946. In this context the words of wartime Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, spoken in 1942, offer cold comfort: "Now, this is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning". It was to be a long, hard, painful slog to victory.

It's also worth remembering that the post-war Socialist government of Clement Attlee got us over the worst of it.


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