It's bonzer, mate!

Both Canada's and Australia's incumbent Prime Ministers have benefited electorally from taking an anti-Trump stance so why has Nigel Farage's Reform UK bucked the trend in England?

Farage promotes himself as a pal of Trump's and espouses many of his policies yet this does not appear to have dented his appeal in England, where he has pulled off an astonishing electoral coup. Prior to the Canadian and Australian elections it looked a certainty that the ruling centrist parties would be ousted from government in favour of conservative candidates. Thanks to the 'Trump effect' quite the reverse occurred.

In Canada's case the newly-installed Liberal Party leader, Mark Carney, having recently called a snap election, won by a landslide, hugely boosted by Trump's punitive tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st US state. In today's Australian federal election the Labor Party incumbent, Anthony Albanese, widely tipped to lose to opposition Liberal Party leader, Peter Dutton, swept to victory while Dutton lost his seat.

Both Albanese and Carney have been outspoken in their condemnation of Trump's threats - "not the act of a friend" in Albanese's words. Carney is due to visit Trump next week but has just announced that King Charles has accepted his invitation to address the Canadian Opening of Parliament on 27 May. This task usually falls to the Governor General and Charles' address will be the first given by the monarch in person since his mother's in 1977.

On Sir Keir Starmer's visit to Trump in February he extended the King's invitation to an unprecedented second state visit to London, now confirmed for September. Charles' prior visit to Ottowa could thus be viewed as something of a diplomatic rebuke to Trump, or at least a not-so-subtle reminder that his host at Windsor Castle is also Canada's head of state.

Given how things have played out politically in two of the Old Commonwealth's major nations Starmer may be beginning to regret not taking a firmer stance against Trump. On the other hand, the next UK general election is not due until mid-2029. If a week is a long time in politics, four years is an eternity. Trump's second (and Constitutionally last) term expires in November 2028 and, while Trump may seek to change the Constitution, it seems quite likely that the American people's patience with him will have been exhausted long before then. 

Similarly, four years of hard slog running English local councils and mayoral regions may take the shine off Farage and Reform UK's electoral prospects. Whether voter disillusion will have kicked in by next year, adversely affecting their chances in London Borough and Metropolitan District elections (plus postponed elections in East Sussex, Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Surrey and West Sussex, and the unitary councils of the Isle of Wight and Thurrock) remains to be seen. Even if not, the main dis-beneficiaries are likely to be the Conservatives, amongst whose ranks panic is already setting in, with talk of an "existential" crisis looming. If they are thinking of yet another change of leadership, now might be an opportune moment to go for it. 

For his part, Starmer has little choice but to keep calm and carry on. 


Popular posts from this blog

A knight's tale - creative non-fiction

England - 1088 'What's a king without a kingdom?' 'A man, sire. And a man fights for what's his.' The king had been thinking aloud and the thirteen year-old lad's unexpected reply to his rhetorical question caught him off-guard. It was a bold response but, rather than being angered, he felt chastened by it. It was profound coming from one so young and junior in his service though prompted, he knew, by genuine love and loyalty rather than impertinence.  At a moment of grave peril so early in his new reign he valued candour, a commodity in short supply at court. He had followed his father, the Conqueror, as King William II less than a year earlier and now faced widespread rebellion. At such a time he could ill afford self-pity, much less self-doubt. He blamed himself for allowing a brief moment of self-indulgence in front of his page.  Since receiving the devastating news at Eastertide of his brother Robert's challenge the lad had been his closest companio...
Read more

2024 - a year to forget?*

As we approach the end of another rollercoaster year of 'natural' and manmade disasters, I'm taking a moment to look back - and forward. Janus, the two-faced Roman god, gave his name to the month of January, a time for both reflection and anticipation. But as I find myself unexpectedly housebound with a bout of 'flu - or it could be Covid but who has a lateral flow test kit lying around these days? - I'm self-isolating for the remainder of December. Fortuitously, this gives me some time to ponder the existential ' quo vadis ?' questions now rather than waiting until the New Year. I can always have another bite of the glacé cherry then, of course, so these are just some preliminary musings, though with so much hanging in the balance - Syria, Gaza, Ukraine, a second Trump presidency - my observations at this stage can't really be anything more than prefatory. Let's start with the unfolding situation in Syria, the outcome of which could prove to be piv...
Read more

Withering hates

News of a new film adaptation of Wuthering Heights directed by Emerald Fennell (of Saltburn fame) led me to re-read Emily Brontë's classic novel. It brought back many memories. I was raised close to 'Brontë Country' in the 1960s when that area of the West Riding of Yorkshire (as it still was then) remained very much as the Brontës would have known it: remote, bleak, inaccessible and inhospitable. Today, while the moors, apart from a few jarring wind turbines, remain as ruggedly magnificent as ever, the gaunt 17th and 18th century millstone grit farmhouses have been transformed. Fifty years ago, their cold, stone-flagged floors, rattling sash windows and smoking chimneys made comfort hard to find. Only the main living room, t' house in dialect (in Brontë's text as in my youth), had a constantly-burning range, while rag rugs helped keep the chill off our feet. Almost all have been modernised, if not outright suburbanised. Paved driveways, landscaped gardens, double...
Read more