The day the earth stood still

Today, 7th October 2024, marks the first anniversary of Hamas' shock attack on the Nova Music Festival in Israel, as a result of which 1,200 Israeli civilians were massacred and some 250 taken hostage.

In the intervening year the situation has deteriorated to the point where an all-out regional conflict appears not merely likely but almost inevitable. This is why the world now looks on with bated breath to see how the Israeli government will respond on the anniversary of the attack, with a major assault on Iran expected imminently.

While the Pentagon in Washington has supported Israel in intercepting missiles fired into the country recently by Iran, President Joe Biden has warned Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against attempting a retaliatory strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Indeed, for an Israeli strike to successfully penetrate those targets, buried deep underground, it would require large US bombers to deliver massive American-made GBU-57A/B bombs weighing 13.2 tons. It is inconceivable that Biden would sign-off on any such co-operation.

At this late stage on the anniversary of the Nova attack it is probably idle to speculate what form Israel's retaliation will take. What we can be almost 100% certain of is that Israel will strike Iran and that it will be massive. However, we only have to look back to the 'Shock and Awe' bombing of Baghdad for a warning from history.

As a prelude to the 2003 invasion of Iraq this seemingly decisive strike against Saddam Hussein's regime proved to be anything but. Israel's action, when it comes, may not necessarily go according to plan in a region as volatile and destabilised as the Middle East. Almost anything might follow such a campaign of reprisal and Israel (and the world) should fear unintended consequences. 

There is an uncomfortable irony in the fact that today also marks the return of the UK Parliament after the Party Conference Season. On such a momentous day it rather feels as if this, not the 5th of July, is the first session of a newly-elected Labour government, the House of Commons having only sat for a month before going on summer recess, making it something of a false start.

After their summer holidays MPs returned briefly to the Chamber in September before heading off again to a round of party conferences. To re-convene today of all days adds an air of gravity and seriousness it would not otherwise have commanded, with a statement from the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, to the House expected later this afternoon marking the anniversary and updating MPs on the unfolding situation in the Middle East.

Labour has not even completed its first one hundred days in office and has had no honeymoon period at all. It has, instead, been beset by a series of largely self-inflicted controversies, from the axing of pensioners' winter fuel payments, to questions about 'freebies' and gifts, and now the resignation of Sue Gray as Keir Starmer's Chief-of-Staff. 

All in all, this cannot have been the start to an historic new government Labour would have been expecting after fourteen chaotic years under the Tories. Even those heavily-defeated Tories had a spring in their step at their party conference as they rejoiced in Labour's shaky start. They will no doubt go on the offensive in the Commons from today, restrained only by the sombre backdrop to this opening session.
 
The prevailing theme today is likely to be one of retaliatory strikes all round.



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