Long live the king

On Channel 4 News Trump's biographer, Gwenda Blair, suggested he was now more monarch than president.

An intriguing proposition which, if accurate, raises alarming questions as to where the coronation of King Donald I might take America? Not to a good place for sure. What is less clear is how much damage he will wreak until his reign ends, either with his death or deposition. Until now we would have taken some comfort in the fact that the American Constitution limits a president to two terms in office only. But as Trump seems determined to tear up those guiding principles we cannot be certain that, as he hinted during the election campaign when he promised people wouldn't have to vote again, he will remain president for life and rule as an autocrat.

If this is truly his intention, and he is sustained in it by enough appointees, senators and congressmen and -women, then it is not hard to see the country descending into bloody civil war. If that happens, Trump will be less George III, a constitutional monarch after all, and more Charles I, an autocratic king dubbed 'A Man of Blood'. I have always seen the eighteenth century War of Independence as America's first civil war, with the secessionary conflict of the 1860s being its second. It almost feels as if that conflict was never truly resolved, even by the Civil Rights Movement a century later, leaving the door ajar for a third.

The very real potential for internicine, interracial conflict erupting in the 1960s was held at bay in large part by a bi-partisan consensus between the Democratic and Republican parties on Capitol Hill and a succession of occupants of the White House content to honour the Constitution and abide by the rule of law. Trump's second term, especially in the aftermath of a stinging defeat in 2020, means that this no longer applies. His second term is a grudge match and, as he sees it, there are many scores to be settled. As with Charles I dissolving parliament in 1629 and ruling alone (the so-called Eleven Years' Tyranny), this could be the pretext for a descent into anarchy.

And, like Charles I, Trump clearly now sees himself as annointed by God. In his rambling Inauguration speech he referred to his surviving the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on 13 July 2024 as divine intervention. In his mind he has been called by God to save the United States from socialism, immigration and degeneracy - and China! Not only this but he has thrown down the gauntlet to his neighbours and allies, promising to occupy or annex sovereign territory, renege on treaties and impose punitive trade tariffs. This is unlikely to win him any friends abroad and risks making many enemies at home.

At the moment, he obviously doesn't care what the world, or non-MAGA America, thinks of him; he feels himself unassailable. Domestically, he clearly believes he has a democratic mandate to do as he wishes. However, while signing a raft of executive orders in the Oval Office may be performative, putting them into effect is another matter entirely. And if his actions create internal chaos and division such that the very existence of a unified nation is placed in jeopardy, he may find himself very much weakened, at home and abroad. 

His pardoning of the Capitol Insurrection criminals is already alienating his police force. The insulting language he directed towards the Governor of California and the Mayor of Los Angeles in the aftermath of the devastating fires could potentially see the more liberal West Coast states of Washington, Oregon and California seeking to break away from the Republican stranglehold of the Union. California is the world's fifth largest economy and is home to some very wealthy and influential people who, reeling from the loss of property and insurance cover, will not take kindly to Trump's views on climate change.

As Commander-in-Chief Trump will also have to rely on the loyalty and compliance of his senior army and immigration officers to implement his plans to seal the southern border with Mexico. Likewise, any blockades of the Panama Canal or the Davis Strait between Greenland and Canada will also require the support of his Joint Chiefs of Staff. And even if this is forthcoming, there's the matter of cost and supplies of trained personnel and materiel to put such plans into action. And such plans will inevitably be subject to domestic and international legal challenges.*

Finally, there's the question of rivalry to Trump's rule. It has been suggested that Trump harbours dynastic hopes for his sons Donald Jnr, Eric and Barron. In American politics such dynasties tend not to flourish (think Kennedy and Bush) though we can never say never. More likely is that ambitious Republican politicians, resenting the Trump family stranglehold on power blocking their own hopes, will stage a coup. Trump was never really a Republican but he was tolerated by the party so long as he won for them. As is becoming increasingly apparent, he won for himself, his family and his oligarch 'tech bro' buddies. This could lead to a revolt in the Grand Old Party (GOP) sooner rather than later.

I hope, indeed the world must hope, that the US doesn't descend into anarchy but Trump's actions may well lead to unexpected challenges at home and abroad. The more Trump throws around jibes and insults the more likely it is that he builds a coalition of opposition. The Romans, of course, had a phrase for this phenomenon: "Amicus meus, inimicus inimici mei" - my enemy's enemy is my friend. 

Trump may not think he needs friends right now but he certainly doesn't need more enemies. In the normal way of things, in his second term, he is already a 'lame duck' president. He may try to stave off the inevitability of this by Constitutional amendment or an effective coup d'etat but time will catch up with him. His greatest enemy will be the Grim Reaper.

King Charles I should serve as a warning from history, not a role model.

*A Seattle district judge has already challenged Trump's executive order rescinding the Constitutional right of children born in the USA to foreign parents to automatic American citizenship.

Update 13/02/25: Having now seen the 2024 film, Civil War, with its graphic portrayal of what an American secessionary conflict might look like, I think a White House screening should be scheduled sooner rather than later, although Trump probably wouldn't have the attention-span to sit through it.

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