Trumped

Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States of America, has just become its 47th.

In order to win the election Trump had to gain 270 votes from the Electoral College, he got 279. More than this, the Republican Party now has a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives looks set to go the same way. This represents a hat trick for Trump (or perhaps that's a red MAGA baseball cap) and when he finally takes office in January he will hold all the levers of power. He has regained control not by a narrow and contested margin but emphatically.

Many people will find this deeply disturbing, both within the US and internationally, but I don't feel as panicked as I thought I would. While I find Trump an utterly loathsome man and deprecate his return to the White House, the American electors have made their democratic decision and I'm obliged to defer to that. It's their choice to make but this is not merely an internal matter, the rest of the world has to live with the consequences. And we don't have a say in the matter.

The actions of the US president have global significant, and we non-Americans are right to be concerned. Even if Trump adopts isolationist policies, as looks highly likely, that will not insulate the rest of us from its effects. Higher tariffs will impact world trade and an even greater exploitation of fossil fuels can only exacerbate global climate change. As for Trump's stance on NATO, Ukraine, Palestine and China, only time will tell but it doesn't bode well.

Deplorable as they are, one can't really blame Trump for his pathological character flaws, which are clear for all to see, but one can only marvel at the materialistic selfishness of the American people for indulging such a megalomaniac simply to secure a better standard of living. They are seemingly prepared to sell their supposedly beloved birthright, the US Constitution, for a mess of potage. However, while it's risky to draw comparisons between US and UK elections, the issue of blue and red walls falling does offer a warning; if Trump fails to deliver for those who loaned their votes on the promise of levelling up  he could yet go the same way as Boris Johnson.

Joe Biden doesn't emerge well from this rout either. It was ludicrous to delude himself that at the age of 81 he was fit to run for another four years in office. Poor Kamala Harris has paid the price for his ego trip. Admittedly she got the opportunity to run, and did very well, but she only had 108 days to prepare her campaign after Biden's calamitous performance in his debate with Trump exposed his declining powers so cruelly.

But, when all is said and done, it's the economy, stupid. To her credit Harris did campaign on economic issues but the electorate preferred Trump's version. Wall Street has already welcomed Trump's victory, with the Dow Jones Index surging 3.2% on the news, and a Trump presidency almost certain to boost the economy, already buoyant after Joe Biden's reforms. 

There has been a dramatic shift to the Republicans (or rather to Trump's MAGA agenda) on the part of the working class - in American terms, 'blue collar' - voters. When Trump speaks of a 'golden age for America', this demographic will rejoice, and not just white male workers but Latino and Black as well. And, despite his rhetoric on reproductive rights, working women of all ethnicities have voted Trump in numbers too.

In his victory speech, doubtless reassured by an incontestable and historic win, he dialled down his divisive and hateful language and thanked the American people for their support. He was almost gracious. And that's the thing about this man: what he says and what he does are not consistent. 

Knowing he has another four years in power, at the end of which he will be aged 82, he may well govern in such a way as to ensure his legacy. It might be too much to hope he will be magnanimous in victory but at least he may be less vindictive than he was in defeat in 2020. And if he isn't, those around him may curb his worse instincts.

It's the best we can hope for now.

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