Generic or Badenough? - Tory leadership contest sketch

After an agonisingly protracted leadership campaign the Conservative Party at last finds itself with a new leader - or should I say another new leader.

Yes, after months of campaigning amongst Tory MPs to whittle six candidates down to two the party membership has made the final selection, with the 130,000-odd card-carrying faithful choosing Kemi Badenoch. The outcome, though by a narrow margin, will have surprised few but here's the thing, only one third of Tory MPs (around forty in their post-election slimline ranks in the Commons) supported her candidacy.

Unsurprisingly, she was at pains in her acceptance speech this morning to promise a prominent role for her defeated rival, Robert Jenrick. Whether this will be enough to secure her position is anyone's guess - this is the Tories we're talking about after all - and judging by Jenrick's wife's facial reactions it could be a bumpy ride. Jenrick was all smiles but behind him Michal Berkner's eye-rolling and tokenistic hand-clapping spoke volumes.

To add to this, with some 'big beasts' like James Cleverly and Priti Patel now skulking on her back benches she will either need to have eyes in the back of her head or keep a close watch in her rearview mirror. Given what we know about Badenoch's combative nature, though, she is unlikely to be cowed or constrained by opposition within her own Parliamentary party in the way Rishi Sunak clearly was, to such a degree that he barely dared take a position on anything at all. He, like Gordon Brown before him, will go down in history as a capable Chancellor but a hapless Prime Minister.

Badenoch is much more likely to set her own course and damn the consequences but she will first have to come up with some clear policies of her own to defend as Leader having run a notably policy-lite campaign. She obviously took a leaf out of Labour's election playbook, keeping her position deliberately vague so as not to frighten the electoral horses. But, like Labour in power, she will now have to nail her colours to the mast and be prepared to face mutinous rumblings from her crew. 

Whether she will be able to hold her own and stamp her authority on her far-from united colleagues remains to be seen but she will be only too conscious that there is ample time for them to unseat her and select another Leader to take them into the next election. While this seems unlikely it is by no means impossible and her dilemma will be whether to tack to the right, as her previous stance would seem to suggest, or seek to placate her One Nation centrist colleagues. Her shadow cabinet decisions could be make-or-break.

She will be only too aware that alienating her rightwing colleagues risks them decamping to Nigel Farage's resurgent Reform Party. They now have somewhere else to go in the Commons if they feel seriously disgruntled with her leadership. While her temperamentally right-leaning views may be enough to hold onto her would-be Faragists, what about her 'Wets'? The Lib Dems had a good election and are in buoyant mood. They will be as much of an electoral challenge as Reform on the doorstep come 2029.  

Winning the leadership was the easy bit for Badenoch, who now has the much more difficult task of translating her victory into a coherent policy platform. That's the stumbling block which could yet prove her undoing. With only one hundred and twenty MPs to choose from, eighty of whom did not support her bid, forming a shadow cabinet could be problematic and is unlikely to produce a cohesive unit (does it ever?). This could spell trouble ahead.

She is clearly up for the challenge but the danger of hubris is an ever-present one. Predicting outcomes in politics is always a dangerous game, especially in today's febrile atmosphere, but I have long thought a split possible, if not inevitable. Badenoch, far from being the glue that binds her party together could be the catalyst that splits it apart.

Her presence at the despatch box at Prime Minister's Questions next Wednesday as Leader of His Majesty's Loyal Opposition will make for fascinating viewing. The dynamic between her and Keir Starmer will be interesting to watch develop over time. Her combative style will present him with a real challenge, having only had to deal with Sunak since July as a defeated interim opposition leader on his way out. The phoney war is over, let battle commence!

Badenoch will now have all the ammunition provided by Rachel Reeves' budget to fire at him, a task which she will undoubtedly relish. Starmer, despite his huge Parliamentary majority, will no longer be able to coast through PMQs, he will have to be on his mettle. Week after week the sparks will fly across the floor of the House of Commons, with commentators eagerly noting how many hits Badenoch scores.

For her part, though, she may be more concerned about what's happening behind her.

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