The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune

We often hear about the importance of 'the Jewish vote' in US elections and its influence on America's Middle-East policy stance, but what does it actually mean in practice?

'The Jewish vote' (loosely defined) constitutes around 2% of the US electorate but punches disproportionately above its weight due to its active engagement in the democratic process. This means all US politicians ignore its influence at their peril but, collectively, its vote has gone substantially to the Democratic Party for generations and the 2024 Presidential election looks set to be no exception. It tends to be a more progressive voting cohort and the latest polls show some 68% of Jewish voters favouring Kamala Harris, with 25% planning to support Donald Trump. 

This broadly follows the long-established voting pattern and the growing conflict in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, with the very real danger of a widening conflict in the region, seems not to have moved the dial. Or not yet at least. Should the conflict escalate into an all-out Middle-East war, which feels scarily likely, the incoming President will face a more than usually painful dilemma in relation to US diplomatic, military and humanitarian aid engagement in the region.

American Presidents tend to support Israel whilst seeking at the same time to placate Muslim states in the region, especially Saudi Arabia with its vast oil reserves. This comes down to a combination of factors, with the importance of 'the Jewish vote' being a major consideration, of course. However, the fact that Israel is the only truly functioning democracy in the region, with a Western outlook and generally socially liberal culture*, is obviously a vital US partner. Israel is a key US ally in the region and (so far) the only regional state with a functioning nuclear armaments capability, which it doesn't officially admit to but is widely believed to possess.

Nevertheless, Israel can be a wayward ally, and never-more so than under its current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. He is proving a thorn in the side of the US administration and his belligerence and intransigence risks triggering a widening regional conflict, as we see playing out right now. Netanyahu is playing a cynical game of emotional blackmail with the West, and especially the US, following Hamas' unexpected attack on Israel on 7 October last year, the impending anniversary of which is ratcheting up the tension now. The massacre was egregious by any standards but two wrongs do not make a right.

We must never forget that 1200 Israeli citizens were killed and 250 taken hostage, 100 of whom are still being held in Gaza. With such a brutal provocation, any sovereign nation would be expected to retaliate forcefully and would be condoned in doing so. However, one year later, Israel's (or the Netanyahu government's) reaction has been so asymmetrical as to spark widespread revulsion and condemnation in the international community, even amongst nations normally predisposed to support it.

But, as I predicted at the time, Netanyahu's sending the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) into the Gaza Strip was a clear prelude to genocide. It was obvious then that his strategy was not merely to destroy the Hamas leadership but the whole Gazan infrastructure and, with it, most of its Arab population. With Egypt refusing to open its border to allow them to escape destruction, the inevitable consequence was mass-extermination, through killing, starvation or disease. At the time I referred to this as "shooting fish in a barrel" and I have watched with horror as this has played itself out in real time.

With some 40,000 Palestinians now dead, 95,000 injured, up to 65% of buildings and 91% of roads destroyed and 1.87 million homeless, with winter coming on, I defy anyone to say that this is anything other than deliberate policy - and a scorched earth one at that. It is clearly neither inadvertent nor accidental but Netanyahu seeks to blame the continuing resistance of Hamas and its refusal to release the remaining hostages, or the bodies of those who have since died, for his continuing assault on a trapped civilian population, contrary to international law.

It is a matter of fact that Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in the West Bank and Lebanon are funded, armed and encouraged by the Iranian Shia Islamic regime. Hamas' incursion into Israel on 7 October 2023, and Hezbollah's rocket attack into Israeli territory the following day, were deliberately provocative actions on the part of organisations pledged to the total destruction of the Jewish state of Israel. Against this backdrop Israel obviously had to fight back - and fight hard - as a matter of survival. Iran and its proxies pose an existential threat to Israel but, sadly, Netanyahu's provocative policies risk making the fight-back a protacted and possibly perpetual one. With every disproportionately aggressive Israeli response the Palestinian hatred grows, swelling the depleted ranks of Hamas and Hezbollah with another generation of fighters. But maybe it suits Netanyahu to prolong the bloodshed and widen the action if it keeps him in power and out of gaol?

Until recently, Israel had confidently sheltered under its 'Iron Dome' missile protection system, augmented by the so-called 'David's Sling' and 'Arrow' capabilities designed to intercept medium- or long-range ballistic missiles. Incoming rockets from Gaza and Lebanon have mostly been intercepted and destroyed in the air. Now, though, long-range ballistic missile volleys from Iran, one thousand miles away, and from the Houthi rebels in Yemen, are hitting home, with one narrowly missing the Mossad secret services headquarters outside Tel Aviv. Netanyahu has threatened retaliation, risking a cycle of escalation until either his, or the Ayatollahs' regime in Tehran, collapses.

The alternative to either outright victory by one side or the other, regime collapse ditto, or negotiated settlement is almost too horrendous to contemplate but must, increasingly, be concentrating minds in the US administration and amongst its allies. That is the spectre of regional conflagration, possibly including nuclear weapons. Were that to happen the fallout, not just atomic but political, economic and environmental, would be catastrophic - for the region and the world. I suspect the end, whatever that is and whenever it comes, will be swift and unexpected.

We can only hope that common-sense, and -humanity, prevails.

*This may not remain the case for much longer if, as reports suggest, the liberal secular elite flee the country in growing numbers to escape the violence and escalating ultra-rightwing Orthodox religious intolerance.

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