Many a slip

Politics can be a grubby, messy, transactional, sometimes vicious business but senior politicians engaging in tough tactics will claim they are doing it for the greater good; that the end justifies the means.

But it's a slippery slope, and never more so than when the party in government commands a massive majority. Labour's landslide victory in the general election of 4 July means it can, in theory, do more-or-less anything it wishes, provided it can find the money for it. And that's a big proviso: Labour's tight fiscal rules and relatively narrow set of manifesto commitments act as a self-imposed straitjacket. 

Just as Tony Blair's New Labour government in 1997 shackled itself to Tory spending commitments for two years - and in so doing arguably lost precious momentum - it's as if, after years in opposition, the party daren't be too bold for fear of alienating the electorate. Their motto might almost be 'don't frighten the horses'.

Such timidity is perhaps understandable when viewed in light of the soul-destroying experience of eighteen years spent on the opposition benches between 1979-97 and fourteen between 2010-24, with many false dawns along the way (think 1992 and 2019). 

This exaggerated caution gave rise to one of the most compelling metaphors of the 2024 election campaign, that of Sir Keir Starmer gingerly carrying the imaginary 'Ming vase' of victory across a polished floor. Extreme caution is probably advisable when attempting to win an election, indeed it's a sine qua non if you want to bring about change. You can't implement your policies if you don't first get elected - that's a no-brainer.

Unfortunately, it also tends to take the edge off eventual victory. I remember the very real sense of elation at Blair's victory in 1979 which tipped over into triumphalism at the long-awaited defeat of the hated Tory governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major. I wasn't in the country for Starmer's recent win but, viewed from abroad, it seemed a rather muted affair - characterised more by a sense of weary resignation than of joy. Relief at Sunak's defeat trumped excitement at Starmer's victory. 

This could well have been because, in voting Labour, the electorate wasn't sure what it had actually voted for but was clear what it had voted against. Having failed to establish what he stood for in the campaign it now falls to Starmer to define his principles in government. That's a difficult trick to pull off when you can't control the narrative and are judged by your deeds rather than your words. In trying to assert the authority to which he understandably believes his huge majority entitles him it seems he may have overreached himself.

His withdrawal of the party whip for six months from seven Labour MPs who defied the government by voting for an SNP amendment to the King's Speech calling for the abolition of the controversial two-child benefit cap, is widely seen as draconian. Such ruthlessness in asserting his authority so early in his government could come back to haunt Starmer. Those defending the rebels say that, with such a massive parliamentary majority, he could have afforded to be more magnanimous.

The counter-argument is that such a majority is the very reason he should act firmly in imposing discipline. Removing the cap was not included in the manifesto and yet the party still won by a landslide. The mood music coming out of government was that it was open to removing the cap when finances allow. 

Therefore, to defy the government so openly, and so early in the parliament - and on an opposition motion to boot - was bound to be seen by Starmer as an act of gross disloyalty. As a lawyer and former-Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) he is a known stickler for rules and due process. In other words, it is not for their principles that he has punished the rebels but for their very public breach of parliamentary conventions - and flaunting of his authority.

Tony Blair suffered a much bigger rebellion early in his government (interestingly on proposed benefit cuts) and yet rose above it. On 11 December 1997 forty-seven backbenchers opposed his plans to cut benefits to single parents and one hundred abstained. With his massive majority he still won comfortably. 

It is probable that Starmer, having only so recently and painfully dragged his party back from the brink of extinction after its electoral catastrophe of 2019 under his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, feels he cannot afford to cede any ground now. However, it's a risky strategy. 

The group of seven rebels includes John McDonnell, Corbyn's Shadow Chancellor, and Rebecca Long-Bailey, his Deputy. It also includes Zarah Sultana who, when asked for her view of Starmer, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I’m not interested in playing up to this macho virility test that seems to be what people are talking about. It’s about the material conditions of 330,000 children living in poverty. This isn’t a game. This is about people’s lives.”

The seven rebels will sit as Independents in the Commons, alongside Jeremy Corbyn, who was expelled from the Labour Party but retained his parliamentary seat of Islington North with a massive majority at the recent election. There is a clear and present danger for Starmer here. There now exists a left-wing Labour splinter group, providing dissenters with the makings of a caucus in the Commons.

As disaffection grows (and it inevitably will in a parliamentary group of over four hundred) there is now a refuge for rebels and a potential platform for a left-leaning resurgence in reaction to Starmer's resolutely centrist policies. Corbyn also voted for the SNP amendment so there can be little doubt as to how this could play out. If a week is a long time in politics, six months is an eternity - there is plenty of scope for plotting, recruiting and regrouping in that time. 

Diane Abbott, Labour veteran MP and now 'Mother of the House' by virtue of her long service, did not take part in the vote for "personal reasons" but.expressed herself "horrified" at the MPs' suspension "when removing the cap is supposed to be party policy". Ms Abbott, herself suspended from the Labour party for over a year, was only readmitted just prior to the election and was returned to the House as a Labour MP with 24,355 votes. As a left-winger close to Jeremy Corbyn it might not take much to see her make common cause with this new dissident faction.

It seems highly unlikely, given its crushing electoral defeat of five years ago, that the left could ever again mount a significant challenge to a centrist Labour party. However, if rebels were to formally split from Labour to form a new socialist party, it could offer a welcome home to many Labour MPs who will have been rattled by Starmer's disciplinarian stance, especially over the emotive issue of child poverty which touches so many of their constituents' lives. 

After all, It only took a 'Gang of Four' to split Labour in the 1980s and we now have a potential gang of seven-plus-one, only one fewer than the new SNP Commons intake. Starmer needs to tread very carefully with that precious vase.

Corbyn may be planning to trip him up.

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