So what happens now?

Just as Rishi Sunak prepared to face his first Prime Minister's Questions after his party's local government elections debacle another of his MPs crossed the floor in a shock move to sit behind Sir Keir Starmer on the Opposition benches.

Natalie Elphicke, MP for Dover and Deal, described her erstwhile party as "a byword for incompetence and division”. Following Dr Dan Poulter's recent defection to Labour, and the victory of Chris Webb in the by-election in Blackpool South last Thursday, winning back the 'Red Wall' seat for Labour, Ms Elphicke's shock move can only have further deflated an already humiliated Prime Minister. Neither Dr Poulter nor Ms Elphicke intends to stand again at the general election, so only have a maximum of eight months to sit as Labour MPs, but their moves have inflicted further pain on a Tory Party that finds itself beleaguered on all sides.

Given Ms Elphicke's parliamentary track record her move is hardly likely to be motivated by ideology, more an attempt to inflict a fatal blow on Sunak's leadership. On the basis that 'my enemy's enemy is my friend', her unexpected arrival on the Opposition benches will doubtless be welcomed pragmatically by her new colleagues. While it may not represent a Damascene conversion it will serve Labour's purposes for the limited period remaining up to the general election.

That purpose must now be to wear Sunak down to such a point that he calls said election sooner rather than later. It seems apparent that, after last week's trouncing, disaffected rightwing Tory backbenchers no longer have the appetite for another leadership challenge. At the same time they may well decide after today's blow that hanging on until the last possible moment before going to the country will just be too painful and embarrassing. 

Sunak's intention may have been to achieve two years as PM (24 October) before calling the election but the pressure may now build on him to go early and spare his party further indignity. To suggest that the atmosphere behind the scenes in Westminster today will be febrile would be a massive understatement - it will be delirious. 

I think we should stand by for 'further announcements'.


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