Plus ça change

They say there's nothing new under the sun and official papers from 2003, newly-released by the National Archives, certainly seem to show that to be true.

Across a wide range of issues, from immigration to the Good Friday Agreement and the Parthenon Sculptures, Tony Blair, during his premiereship, was beset by many of the same problems now facing Rishi Sunak. He dealt with them very differently, though. Take immigration, for example. In 2002 asylum applications had reached 84,132 but through imposing tougher measures on border control and visas - and bearing in mind the UK was still in the EU, with more porous borders - the annual number of asylum applications fell to a low of 17,916 by 2010, the last year of the Labour administration. It now stands at almost the level it did in 2002 - and still the small boats cross the English Channel.

One of the surprising suggestions put to Blair for a deterrent to asylum seekers was to accommodate them in a camp on the Isle of Mull. You have to wonder whether that would have served as a more effective disincentive than Rwanda. Of course, it was never implemented, and it seems highly likely that the Rwanda proposal will go the same way.

The Northern Ireland Protocol, signed with the EU by Sunak's predecessor-but-one, Boris Johnson, continues to plague Sunak, whose much-vaunted Windsor Framework was supposed to solve the problems of the flow of goods between the Province and Great Britain. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) remains to be convinced, however, and has withdrawn its support. As a result, the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont has not been sitting for almost two years. Compare this to Blair's triumphant negotiations to secure the Good Friday (or Belfast) Agreement in 1998. 

Also revealed in the release of papers is Blair's openness to, indeed enthusiasm for, the idea of returning the Parthenon Sculptures ('Elgin Marbles') to Greece. This was in order to smooth the way to securing London's bid to host the 2012 Olympic Games. Contrast this with Sunak's recent petulant last-minute cancellation of a meeting with the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in Downing Street after Mitsotakis had the temerity to discuss the sculptures' return on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg show the day before. Hardly a statesmanlike gesture and not the way to make friends and influence people one would have thought. It may, though, have provided a welcome boost for the campaign to return the Acropolis frieze to Athens.

And so, across a range of issues, Sunak looks more and more like one of history's political lightweights. He has consistently botched the job of Prime Minister and it probably says more about the disarray within the Conservative ranks in Parliament than it does about his competence in office that he remains in his place. 

It's looking like his party is reconciled to electoral defeat next year, after which a battle royal for the leadership, and soul (if it can be said to have one), of Conservatism will inevitably ensue. Doubtless contenders will put party before country, and personal advantage before both, in an unseemly scramble for power and influence. Perhaps posterity's kindest judgment of Sunak will be that at least he didn't lead his country into an illegal and unwinnable war. Climate catastrophe might be a different matter.

That apart, Sunak is destined to feature as a mere footnote in the often-inglorious history of British PMs.



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