A splitting headache

Could growing divisions in the Labour and Conservative Parties lead to a left-right split in both?

Sir Keir Starmer's travails following his refusal to countenance a call for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict, including from his own front benchers, are well documented. Having enjoyed a triumphant party conference in Liverpool mere weeks ago, which appeared to present a united front and cement his control, he now risks a major rift over his stance on this issue. With emotions running high, both for and against, it looks as if he might be heading back to the divisive politics he thought he had put behind him when he effectively neutralised Jeremy Corbyn and the leftwing in his party. As so often, though, such divisions are like the Hydra - lop off one head and another springs up in its place.

And this is not just a problem for Labour. Having faced its own existential divisions under Johnson and Truss it appeared the Tory Party had entered a period of relative calm under the premiership of Rishi Sunak. That has now been shattered by noises off from his Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, widely believed to harbour her own leadership aspirations. Braverman's recent controversial comments, and now her article in The Times accusing the police of bias in their handling of mass demonstrations, are threatening to derail the fragile consensus within Sunak's government.

As if the contents of her Times article were not controversial enough, it now emerges that she submitted it without sign-off from Number 10. In other words, she went rogue. This astonishing act of rank insubordination has led to calls for her sacking but, although Braverman has clearly thrown down the gauntlet, Sunak has yet to pick it up, leading to claims that he is afraid of her support on the right of his party, whose darling she clearly is.

Now, a liberal Conservative former minister, Chris Skidmore, has spoken of his fears that his party is heading in "a very dark direction" over its row-back on net zero commitments. He also commented in relation to Braverman's statement that rough sleeping was a lifestyle choice, “That remark has already been called out by members of the cabinet, so I think I’m not alone in thinking that is a deeply regrettable thing she said.” Taken together, Skidmore's remarks seem to be expressing concerns about the positions being adopted by both his Prime Minister and Home Secretary, which might suggest he feels the government front bench has fatally lost the plot. Skidmore talks of his party as a 'broad church', something Labour also claims of itself, but as in churches of religion, schism is always a danger in political communions.

The implications of this are obviously very serious for Sunak but Starmer has no cause for complacency either. There now appears to be a real possibility that both main parties could suffer a left-right split, either before the general election, or immediately after it depending on the result. The electorate doesn't tend to favour split parties but if both main parties are divided it is hard to predict the outcome. Whether enough time remains in the year before an election must be held for splinter groups to set themselves up as alternative parties is unclear.

However, the history of the schism in the Labour Party in 1981 might offer a pointer. Senior Labour rebels known as 'the Gang of Four' left the Labour Party as a result of disagreement on nuclear disarmament arising out of the Wembley conference of January 1981 and by the March had founded their Social Democratic Party (SDP), which eventually merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) and thus had a lasting impact on the makeup of the House of Commons and the British political scene.

Where there's a will there's a way it seems but whether the will is strong enough on either side for such a formal split in this instance remains to be seen. But if it doesn't happen before the general election, the chances are it could well do so in the ensuing acrimony afterwards.

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

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